MEZARPOLYCan you come back from behind?
The most frustrating moment in a property game is deciding, halfway through, that you've already lost. Is that true? We recorded the standings at every round of thousands of games and checked whether the player in each place went on to win.
- When is the order settled?
- The first 15 rounds: the order means little
- Rounds 15–30: where the game breaks
- How Mezarpoly helps players who fall behind
- What to do when you're behind
- Method
When is the order settled?
In 12,000 four-player bot games we ranked the players by net worth (cash + property + buildings) at the start of every round and measured how often each place went on to win. Without any information, each place would win 25% of games.
| Round | 1st place wins | 2nd place | 3rd place | Last place | Game still going |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 27.0% | 24.8% | 24.4% | 23.8% | 100.0% |
| 10 | 28.7% | 25.7% | 23.6% | 22.0% | 100.0% |
| 15 | 32.0% | 25.3% | 21.9% | 20.7% | 100.0% |
| 20 | 39.8% | 23.8% | 19.2% | 17.1% | 99.9% |
| 30 | 62.9% | 21.2% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 96.5% |
| 40 | 75.6% | 19.1% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 70.1% |
The first 15 rounds: the order means little
The leader at round 10 wins only 28.7% of games, barely above the fair share. The player in last place at that point still wins 22.0%. At this stage net worth is mostly cash and the properties don't form sets yet; one trade or one set can change everything.
Rounds 15–30: where the game breaks
The first houses go up around round 13 and the first hotels around round 16. After that the order quickly starts to matter: the round-20 leader wins 39.8% of games, the round-30 leader 62.9%. The player in last place at round 20 still has a 17.1% chance; at round 30 that falls to 5.4%.
How Mezarpoly helps players who fall behind
In classic property games a player who falls behind often just waits to go bankrupt. Mezarpoly keeps the game open with three mechanisms:
- Catch-up salary: when you pass Go you get an extra salary based on your place (up to ₺250 for last place; the leader gets none).
- Rent discount: a tenant who is behind pays less rent (15% off for last place; the leader pays in full).
- Solidarity cards: some Chance and Community cards give money and a few turns of double rent only to the player in last place or the bottom half.
With these switched off, the round-15 leader's win rate rose from 32.0% to 39.0%, while games were no shorter (44 rounds). So the help doesn't change who tends to win; it makes them work a little harder for it.
What to do when you're behind
- Offer trades. Trading is the biggest lever in the game: a player who never offers a trade sees their win rate drop to 5% (details). Instead of handing an opponent the last piece of their set, ask for a trade that gets you closer to a set too.
- Build, don't hoard. Growing the one set you have brings you back faster than keeping your catch-up salary in the bank. The first house pays back slowest and later ones fast (Houses or hotels?).
- Stay in Jail late in the game. When your opponents' buildings fill the board, a turn in Jail is a turn without paying rent.
- Wait for round 20. Until then, the player in last place still has roughly a one-in-five chance. There is no good reason to give up early.
Method
Crimson Classic map, four bots with four different personalities, the rules engine of the Mezarpoly server. Net worth: cash + purchase price of properties (half if mortgaged) + building costs. If a game had already ended by a given round, it wasn't measured for that round; the "game still going" column shows how many were.
Try it now
Mezarpoly is free: play in your browser with no download, with 2–8 people (8-player rooms are free too), with friends or bots. The rules are on the How to play page.
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